The Brad Weisman Show
Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! #TheBradWeisman #Show #RealEstateRealLife
The Brad Weisman Show
Red State, Blue State... Time to Talk Real Estate!
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Ready to unlock the secrets behind today's real estate market trends and gain a competitive edge? We've got the answers as we dissect the pivotal role of interest rates in homeowners' decisions to sell. With insights into why over a third of homeowners are poised to make a move if rates dip below 6%, and a sneak peek into what this could mean for market dynamics, our conversation promises invaluable takeaways. We'll navigate through predictions for the real estate landscape in the final quarter and beyond into 2025, exploring how political stability could provide clarity and confidence for future trends.
Pete Heim, joins us to unravel the complexities of the broader economic environment, from the intricacies of political advertising and geopolitical tensions to the challenges of rising insurance costs and regulatory impacts on trade. We'll delve into the local real estate scene, showcasing the importance of localized insights over national headlines, and discuss housing affordability amid high rents and low inventory. With potential interest rate stabilization on the horizon and the typical dip in home sales during election years, our episode offers a wealth of knowledge for anyone navigating these economic waters. Join us for a thought-provoking session that promises to equip you with the insights needed to face today's real estate and economic challenges.
"OK GREAT the election is behind us and we can talk about things other than RED STATE and BLUE STATE. Pete is back to talk about Real Estate... Local, Regional and National! There's some balancing going on in the market, pay very close attention to your local market when deciding on list price for YOUR home." - I'm Brad Weisman and I APPROVED this Message!
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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show (formerly known as Real Estate and YOU), where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife #realestateandyou
Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller.
Rates were low for a long period of time. Prices were going up for a long period of time. So everybody coming into the market knew one, the rates are low. Two, you better jump in before the price is up next week. Yep.
Speaker 2:From real estate to real life and everything in between the Brad.
Speaker 1:Wiseman Show and now your host, brad Wiseman. All right, we're back, we're back, we're back. Hopefully you're back too. Hopefully somebody's watching this damn show. What do you think, hugo? I hope so too I hope so, geez, otherwise it's going to be kind of a waste of our time, I think. But we got a new supply of our Magic Mind here. We got our 8-Ball here. We're doing well, right, hugo ball here.
Speaker 2:We're doing well, right, Hugo, that's right that's right.
Speaker 1:I tell you that much. That's right. So that shirt is freaking bright dude, I'll tell you I need sunglasses.
Speaker 2:Wear your sunglasses.
Speaker 1:That's unbelievable. That is quite a shirt. So Hugo's shirt has a volume or no, has a dimmer on the back. There's a dimmer on the back of it that you actually can turn it down a little bit, right. Obviously it's on bright. Yeah, all right, now, that's newcastle, that's, that's, that's they do. They make you wear those shirts so you don't get hit.
Speaker 2:And when you're landscaping, you don't get hurt or all that stuff, right safety yeah, we're gonna have somebody from newcastle on here.
Speaker 1:We're gonna have brad stevenson will be on coming up soon. Uh, in several weeks from now. Today, we have pete heim. Hey, we do. Yes, we do. You know, he's such a regular that we really don't even give a rip to invite him, or to even introduce him.
Speaker 1:Well, I just show up, yeah, he just shows up like a bad penny. It's unbelievable, Unbelievable. All right, so let's get down to some stuff here with real estate, because that's what we're here for. Yeah, let's do it. One of the things that stuck out for me and I'm just going to go through this real quick was interesting. It says over one-third of homeowners would be motivated to move with rates under 6% and we've talked about that, we did so. It says rates less than 6% 35% of the people said they would do something. Rate less than 5%, another 30% and, what's funny, rate less than 3%, I think. It says which mortgage rate, if any, would you need to be comfortable? Yeah, so selling a home this year? They're saying that it need to be less than six percent yeah, that's good yeah, it's good.
Speaker 1:35 said they would do something. Yeah, because they could get there. That means we'll be 35 busier. That's right. If it goes below six percent, exactly, and I think Hugo's gonna refi yeah right, I'm being waiting for it waiting for it. I know you have. I know you have, but this is an interesting stat. There's no rate that would make me comfortable. 42%.
Speaker 2:No kidding, yeah, they're grumpy. Those are grumpy people, aren't they? Yeah, they love their home. They love their home. Sure, that's okay.
Speaker 1:All right, it's all right Okay.
Speaker 2:Yeah, is the interest rate freeze that we're dealing with.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2:Because to move up into a more expensive home and doubling your interest rate it's kind of a double whammy.
Speaker 1:It's not a fun thing to think about, yeah, so yeah, we understand that.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we totally get it. But that's a good stat though, brad, it's 35%.
Speaker 1:That's amazing. It's going to get busy.
Speaker 2:There's a good chance that could come down this year.
Speaker 1:Oh, I agree, and actually some of the stats say that. So what do you have? And then we'll go back to what I have here.
Speaker 2:So just some of the things that we should be watching moving forward. I mean, we're in the last quarter of the year here and I thought what's 2025? What are the some of the things we should be watching? You know, I just I just made a list. Well, let's hear some of it. Well, the first thing is the political uncertainty now is over. Yeah, thank goodness On the national line. Yeah, did you approve your message? I approved. Okay, just checking, and I approved that message and I'm so glad, hugo, did you approve your message? I'm so glad the ads have stopped. Oh my God, oh that was crazy.
Speaker 1:It's unbelievable, yeah. And you know, what's amazing is the amount of money that is spent on all those TV ads and radio commercials. So much money. It's unreal, it is unreal. And the thing is it gets to a point does that really become effective anymore? You know, isn't there a point you get to with any kind of advertising where it's the point of you'd get no return? No, right, there's no return on that annoyance, because I turn the damn stations when it comes on. Yeah, whether I didn't care who it was, it didn't matter if it was Trump or Kamala, right, and you know, it's like I didn't want to hear it, sure.
Speaker 2:It's a pain in the ass to listen to. Well, I think they were going after this extremely small percentage of people. The independents yeah or uncertain.
Speaker 1:You know, did you ever hear the saying a man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still, oh so when you have all this now, he's getting deep, he's getting profound, very profound. I know what are you gonna rub your head.
Speaker 2:Something else gonna come out of there.
Speaker 1:I'm calling the space martian oh, I see, okay, so you're one of those, you're connected with them. Okay, got it 51.
Speaker 2:It's my, it's my hometown got it, but so, so, so, but no, that they're trying to convince people against their will. Yeah, and it's like it's not going to happen. Yeah, if you believe one way and you're going to vote that way and you're going to believe this or vote this way, that's the way it goes. Yeah, it's just, the return of investment seems so small. Yeah, it does, doesn't it? Yeah?
Speaker 1:That margin seems so small. You know who really likes it though the media companies, and you know they're going in there and saying, oh you run this again. It's gonna get you more votes.
Speaker 2:You know they're giving them so much and you and I feel about the media because they they're constantly quoting bad stats for us yeah, everything in our industry it's all.
Speaker 1:It's all, yeah, yeah. Don't listen to the media, don't listen to me, listen to us, we know're doing.
Speaker 2:We're awesome.
Speaker 1:So the political uncertainty is over now. That was your point.
Speaker 2:That is but coming into this year. 70 countries were going to have an election this year.
Speaker 1:Wow.
Speaker 2:So worldwide, there's some uncertainty there, yeah, and that might have to do with economies and dollar strength and things like that. So that's like an overall, like a macro economic thing instead of micro. So we got to watch that. Yes, yes, okay, not just so much us, it's going to be worldwide.
Speaker 1:That's so interesting that there's that much turnover with leadership. Yeah, wow, I mean, 70 is pretty much.
Speaker 2:That's a lot, yeah, yeah. And then we have our own like, with this new administration coming in in. What are the regulations going to look like? What's the trades going to look like? Corporate taxes, immigration, what's all that going to do? It's all going to affect everything in the financial realm, which is we're in that with mortgages and stuff like that.
Speaker 1:So it's going to affect housing, it will.
Speaker 2:Yeah, everything affects housing. Yep. Number two is high finance costs. Interest rates is one and that's the. Now remember we look at the 10 year treasury on that Yep All right. So remember, folks, it's not so much what the Fed comes out and says I'm going to drop it 0.35.
Speaker 1:It indirectly affects, it takes time, it affects the market as a whole, which then sometimes will affect the 10-year treasury Right and it'll come in, but not right away, right Yep Loan maturity deadlines. For commercial or residential. Yeah, that's what I'm scared of.
Speaker 2:But this affects residential, though. Here $1.8 trillion in commercial loans mature by the end of 2026. So that has to do with tenant retention and competition. They're going to be going like this right and so that's going to affect the economy as a whole. Another one is geopolitics and regional wars, these regional wars that are going on right now. It affects, for investors, mostly investor risk Insurance costs. Insurance costs are rising. All these disasters.
Speaker 1:You know something about the insurance. It's not just the disasters. I was talking to an insurance agent and I didn't even think about this until they said something. The other thing is replacement values.
Speaker 2:Yeah, replacement values your own house has gone up.
Speaker 1:Your own house has gone up. If your house has gone up 25% over the last three years, that all those replacement values have to come up, which means your policy goes up. That's right, you know. And because so they have to cover their butt, because all of a sudden you know a place gets wiped out like from a hurricane and you might've had all these that are, and all these houses could be actually undervalued in the replacement value Exactly.
Speaker 2:It's. Yeah, that's a big deal. You almost have to look at that. I mean cause the cost of going up. I mean, if my insurance company made an offer of what my house is insured for, I'd take it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, right, right. You know what?
Speaker 2:want to replace it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, absolutely yeah, so that's. But I think insurance you're going to still see creeping up. Oh.
Speaker 2:I agree, yeah, but we got to watch that. These are things to watch. Six is affordability housing affordability and it's still, if this inventory stays low, prices are going to continue to go up, and that's one of the three things that we that we've got to watch. Also, over the last 15 years, rents have increased 45%.
Speaker 1:That's crazy.
Speaker 2:Right. So those are all affordability things. Number seven is AI. Ai optimizes processes that we deal with mostly, and still a lot inaccurate because it's still gathering information. We've got to watch how we rely on AI. It's a cool tool and it's really neat, but we've got to watch the accuracy of it.
Speaker 1:Well, look at his estimate. I mean not to bust on that, but they're not really accurate accurate no, it's off.
Speaker 2:Yeah, sustainability, which has to do with climate resiliency and regulations. Right um office conversions. We've been talking about this. That's going to be big, especially that 2026.
Speaker 1:If it starts creeping up on that 2026 time period where these are going to be coming due. That the one point, some trillion that you talked about, right, I mean I think you know we're not seeing the amount of people that they thought was going to start going back to the offices. People are fighting that they are Now. If unemployment number starts to go in the wrong direction as far as people are unemployed, then that could change again, because then at that point the employer has more power, more say of where you're going to go to work. Exactly Right.
Speaker 2:Let's put it that way Right now they are, yeah, they are, they're all full.
Speaker 1:So therefore the employer goes oh, you're going to come, you're going to come back to the office. They're like no.
Speaker 2:I'll find another job Right Exactly Well, that 10th, the 10th one that we're going to. We want to watch our price gap expectations on both sides of the seller side and buyer side. We're coming off of that. You know, hey, I'll offer 60 grand more on the purchase price and 18 offers being offered and stuff like that. And then buyers now unrealistic and maybe thinking, well, they can offer, you know, 80% of a list price and stuff like that. So there's this gap right now, Big gap.
Speaker 1:That we got to watch. Well, and it's because you know there, for a while, the country was heading in the same direction at the same time, Right? So almost every market was going up. When you start heading to a more balanced market, it is very localized. So what happens is the media is always going to report what is the new shiny object, which would be oh, the market's plummeting because they're looking at New York City or they're looking at wherever, they're looking at these pockets where the market is starting to depreciate. But then they put it out there and everybody thinks that's what's happening everywhere. Sure, and it's not there's still pockets everywhere.
Speaker 1:There's pockets within our own community, here, of of um of things that are different. You know you go from one school district to the next. You're going to see one that's appreciating, yet one that's actually not. So it's very, very localized and it's very important that people get the correct information from us and not the media.
Speaker 2:Well, we're still at 100.1. What is 100.1? 100.1. That's pretty much list price.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's great, that's average.
Speaker 2:now, that's great, that's average, yeah, so we're right there, and that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1:If you do an analysis, pricing analysis, anywhere locally here, you might find that some places it's going to be 98%. Yeah, it depends on the market you're in, but you're saying as an average it's 100.1.
Speaker 2:It's a Berks County. Yeah, it's interesting Job report right for October was pitiful.
Speaker 1:Yeah, really bad 12,000 new jobs and they also adjusted all the months before too, which were actually lower.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so that could change here on the upcoming months. It could happen, and then we have a graphic. I don't know if we're going to post it or not, but it has to do with homeowners. Yeah, it'll be on.
Speaker 1:Yep, it's the updated homeowner versus renter net worth gap. It's just, I love it's, it's, it's updated. I have that. I have that. You have it right here. Oh yeah, the right there. It's done. Yeah, and it's now.
Speaker 2:That is pretty crazy, dude the last reporting time was 2022, that's so I guess that's the last they had the stats from. But 390. Um, if you own a home, the, your average net worth is $396,200. If you own a home and as a renter, you're $10,400. Isn't that crazy? That is absolutely crazy. That just tells you you've got to buy a house and you just get started.
Speaker 1:You've got to jump in. I mean, I tell my buyer clients that all the time you just have to jump in. I think because this market is so weird, where we have prices going up in some areas, prices going down in some areas. Media is telling you there's a lot of confusion right now. And then also the interest rates. Everybody thinks the rates might come back down to 3%, 4%. The thing that there's so many different messages right now that there's nothing that somebody can just go. Okay, here's what's happening.
Speaker 1:And I think before, believe it or not, when rates were low for a long period of time, prices were going up for a long period of time. So everybody coming into the market knew one, the rates are low. Two, you better jump in before the price is up next week. So now it's kind of all over. So you really got to watch where you're at, with where you're buying. But no matter what, jump in, just jump in, jump in, because I could tell you a year from now you're going to be going son of a gun. Why didn't I jump in? I lost that appreciation or whatever.
Speaker 1:Absolutely so going back to the mortgage rates, which is interesting. Um, keeping current matters, does this survey and in October they did the survey again and these are the numbers they came up with and basically it said for, uh, quarter four of 2024, which we are in, that now the average is saying it's going to be a 6.17 percent rate and that's fannie mae, nba and ner getting together and kind of giving their prediction. 2025 quarter one is saying six percent. 2025 quarter two is saying 5.9. They're off already. Yeah, exactly, I know, because it's what is it? We don't know. I didn't mean what is it? Around the time of the is staying 5.9%. They're off already. Yeah, exactly, I know because it's.
Speaker 2:What is it? We don't know. I didn't mean. What is it? Around the time of the show we're at the rate. What 6.75? It's seven. It just came down from seven a little bit.
Speaker 1:Yeah, Just under seven, so yeah, but the thing is the one thing that everybody does agree on that we, we. What I've listened to is that the rates are not supposed to go up in 2025. Right, they're supposed to kind of mellow out a little bit.
Speaker 2:They will, yeah, and I think they will too. The certainty is over now politically yeah, yep and um, which probably brings us to, if you want to, just really quick, I want to mention about why home sales bounce back.
Speaker 1:This is what you do with rates. You just do that. We'll put this on our. Yeah, because that didn't mean anything. What I just said. I'll just keep this here.
Speaker 2:Yeah, just keeping that there. Okay good, but why home sales bounce back after presidential elections?
Speaker 1:Did you see that? I saw that, yes, I actually. I saw that yes.
Speaker 2:So seasonally, every election time, which is the fall, it goes down 9.8%, just seasonally, on which we're getting back to, we're coming back and covid period is over. I mean it's the unicorn years. Yeah, it's over. So we're coming back to seasonality, so, but during election years it goes down 15 yeah, I saw that because of the uncertainty, right, but then, but then.
Speaker 2:Good news 82 of years following an election, so in this coming coming year will be 2025 for us 82% of the years following an election increased since 1980. That's good news, right? I looked at the chart. I don't have the chart with me, I do. Is it this?
Speaker 1:one. No, no, that's the forecast.
Speaker 2:Only two of those years actually went down. Wow, and it was really the 08 thing and it was something else. When the uncertainty is over, people go back at, go back into it well, and you know I get it.
Speaker 1:here's the thing whether you win or lose, we know the country's divided 50 50. Okay, when you win or lose. Here's what I said the last month and a half, two months, the 50, each 100 of the people going, I'm not doing anything because if my person doesn't get in, I'm going to be depressed, right, and so then nobody does anything. At least now the 50% that won is making decisions. That's right. The other 50% might be upset and might be depressed, but they will get over it also and they will start to make decisions because life goes on.
Speaker 2:That's right, and the uncertainty is over. Yeah. That's really the biggest, absolutely fear of the unknown. Yeah, it is fear of the unknown yeah, I mean, the predicted sales for 2024 is 4.6 million and we're on track for that for 2024.
Speaker 1:Yeah, 2024 and then for 2025 um it's five something 5.7 million sales yeah yeah, that's after an election. That's after election. It's amazing. Yep, it's awesome, right? Yeah, what else we got? I think it's how many homes in the market. It's 335, I think, right.
Speaker 2:No 435. 435. That's in our area here, 435. Not 335.
Speaker 1:Holy crap, that'd be fake news. Holy crap, can't do fake news. We heard enough of that. Here was one that's real interesting. And then we'll kind of wrap this up. Oh no, you know what this magic mind dude, I'm on, I'm on. I should ask him that every month, right same question. They'll be like oh my god, he has alzheimer's um, but no um, and I'm taking this stuff. That's. It's really amazing. I have I'm on autopilot. Oh good, oh good, so am I so am I but I get the brad 40 deal.
Speaker 1:Oh, you didn't. Oh, we'll have to work on that for you, that's okay. Um, yeah, so this is magic mind. I've been taking it every day. My wife takes it.
Speaker 1:It is amazing, pete is taking it yeah it's got all kinds of stuff for focus, for energy, you know, and it's funny, I missed it a couple times because a couple days in a row I think we're away or something like that and there's definitely a difference of sharpness that I feel when I'm, when I'm, when I'm drinking it. I really do. I feel the difference. It's called magic mind. You can go on, you can go online and look, you can use the Brad Wiseman secret code. I think it's only 20% now. So it's magicmindcom backslash Brad Wiseman. 20 is what it is. You get 20% off If you have an issue getting the 20% off.
Speaker 2:That's the deal I got.
Speaker 1:That's the deal you got. Okay, if you have a problem getting in kind of discount, let me know, because I want to make sure you get it and you can just email me know, because I want to make sure you get it and you can just email me.
Speaker 2:do you know what one word sums that stuff up? Yeah, give me one word clarity, ah because it's very good one. I like that you don't feel like. You don't feel like a, a, you know puppy upper yeah, it's not.
Speaker 1:It's not that, it's not that because I'm drinking it with coffee that's what I drink it with, yeah yeah, and it's like there's no, and I actually enjoy it now. Actually, yeah, I think the caffeine helps it.
Speaker 2:I know caffeine is a messenger.
Speaker 1:It elongates your caffeine effect too. It does. It makes you feel more awake. But the clarity, yeah, I agree, and maybe it's because I'm 62 years old or something, I don't know.
Speaker 2:But if I don't take it I'm trying not to take it on a day that I don't work, yeah, just don't, just to relax, yeah, and I'm like we always thought you were like.
Speaker 1:My mama told me yeah, oh my God, I remember that that was a good part. I'm like the buzzard, you know yeah.
Speaker 2:But, man, when you take it, you know what Dude you said wait, wait to take a couple and then it starts to take effect. For me Now are different and all that. I take it once and I feel it I didn't need to build up to it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, Sometimes they say three days it takes until you actually get the effects of it, but this is my new box of it.
Speaker 2:So here, why don't you take one home? Thank you, man, you're okay. Yeah, of course. Of course, there you go, there you go.
Speaker 1:All right, so real quick. I just want to talk about this was interesting about the jobs report that did come out in October, which we talked about it already. This is what I think is interesting. So 51,000 of the jobs that came in in October were healthcare and social assistance. Wow, guess what. The number two job maker was Realtors. Nope, what do you think? What do you think? Government, government, 40,000 new jobs in government in.
Speaker 2:October. I was just guessing. No, that's what it is. Oh, wow, that's what it is.
Speaker 1:So healthcare is number one. That's something that has to be slowed down or stopped. It's too much.
Speaker 2:That has got to stop.
Speaker 1:Yeah, wholesale trade 10,400 jobs, that's good Construction. 8,000 jobs that shows that new construction might be coming back. Fourth information. Not sure what the hell that is 3,000 of those on information. I want to do that job, just give information Mining and logging 1,000. Oh, dude, See, that's real man stuff. I'm a lumberjack.
Speaker 2:Did you know that I'm a lumberjack and you're okay?
Speaker 1:Yes, and I'm okay. I work all day. But guess who lost jobs, utilities, lost jobs To.
Speaker 2:AI To AI yeah, automation.
Speaker 1:I'm actually a robot right now.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah, we hired a new Hugo. Oh God, it's funny. Transportation warehousing down 3,700. Leisure hospitality down 4,000. Retail trade down 6,400. In jobs, manufacturing, we lost 46,000. Professional and business service we lost 47,000. That's us, is that us?
Speaker 2:Professional and business service. Yeah, there you go, and we were the biggest one. What's that? We were the biggest loss.
Speaker 1:Yeah, we were the biggest loss. So it's very telling of where things need to change.
Speaker 2:Yeah, okay, it's very telling, but that's pretty much it.
Speaker 1:Anything else to say, Hugo? Anything else to say?
Speaker 2:No, you're good yeah.
Speaker 1:All right, sounds good. Yeah, man, that's pretty much it. I think that was a lot of information.
Speaker 2:Dude, that was yeah, that was a lot of info. Yeah, very quickly, that was a lot of information. I hope we didn't overwhelm anybody.
Speaker 1:I hope not too. I hope not. I know I need a drink. Yeah, two amazing sponsors. We got Comfort Pro and we have First Response Contracting. They're amazing, they're sponsors of our show and also Magic Mind, of course. Thanks for coming to see us every Thursday at 7pm. Alright, that's it.
