The Brad Weisman Show
Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! #TheBradWeisman #Show #RealEstateRealLife
The Brad Weisman Show
Real Talk on Housing Markets
Hi This is Brad Weisman - Click Here to Send Me a Text Message
We analyze the current real estate market conditions in locally and nationally, separating media hype from reality while examining foreclosure rates, price appreciation, and interest rate predictions.
• Berks County currently has 446 homes on the market, showing stability in the mid-four hundreds
• Foreclosure rates are up 7% nationally but represent only 1 in 758 homes compared to 1 in 45 during the 2008 crash
• National housing appreciation predictions average 1.6% for remainder of 2025, while Berks County is experiencing 5.4% appreciation
• Interest rates are stabilizing in the 6.4-6.6% range with little expectation of significant decreases
• Home prices are up 55% nationally compared to five years ago, with current market adjustments averaging only 3.5% downward in some regions
• The "five-year rule" suggests homebuyers will typically come out ahead if they hold property for five years regardless of market timing
• Tax exemptions on primary residence sales ($250,000 for singles, $500,000 for married couples) may be increased to reflect significant home appreciation
• Experts recommend focusing on personal housing needs rather than attempting to time the market
If you're thinking about buying or selling, don't make decisions based on headlines. Work with a real estate professional who understands the local market conditions and can help you navigate the current environment based on your personal situation.
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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife
Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller.
from real estate affects the market as a whole, which then sometimes will affect the right. You know the real life. We all learn in different ways. If you think about it, wayne dyer might not attract everybody, and everything in between mission was really to help people just to reach their full potential.
Speaker 2:The brad weisman and now your host.
Speaker 1:Brad Wiseman. All right, we're back, hugo. You're back too, aren't you? I am, I am, oh there, he is. There he is. Say hi, this is nice. We now have a Hugo cam, and it is very, very cool. It allows us to see the beauty of the Hugo that is on the show.
Speaker 2:That's right, there he is. That's right there he is.
Speaker 1:There he is Good-looking guy yeah, look at him. I mean come on. Yeah, that's right. So we're back. And we're back because we have a real estate show going on. Yes, we do. That's today, today for joining us, by the way, every thursday at 7 pm and also thanks for our. We have some sponsors. First response contracting john sellers 484-256-7136. We also have comfort pro. They do a great job with anything hvac, hvac, hvac, indoor air quality, duct cleaning and residential and commercial work. Their number 610-477-5512. Thanks so much for their support because it really helps out with the show, right, hugo?
Speaker 3:That's right, that's right, that's right.
Speaker 1:He has no idea. So no Pete's here today. Pete, thanks for coming in again tonight. Appreciate it.
Speaker 2:Thanks for having me, mr Wise man. Yeah, wise man.
Speaker 1:Always good to see you, always good to talk about real estate. Let's, um, you know let's. Let's just start off. How many houses on the market here in berks county?
Speaker 2:well, there was 446 about an hour ago.
Speaker 1:Okay, so we're staying up there we're staying in that mid-four range. This is good, better than 250. It is better than 250 and but you know, what I love is the consistency of it. Yeah, the consistency. And actually it's not uncommon nationally. All those numbers are up, right, all the numbers are up nationally, right, all the numbers are up nationally.
Speaker 2:And we're kind of, we're just kind of and it's higher nationally.
Speaker 1:Oh, a lot higher.
Speaker 2:A lot higher. Yeah, a lot higher. Average-wise it's way higher.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's interesting and some of the information we have is going to kind of show where things are. And we're midway through the year. Yeah, we're past midway through the year, that's true. And that means that now the predictions of what we see or what we're looking at, all the predictions are what's it going to be to the end of 2025? What's 2026 going to look like right, get out your eight ball. Yeah, hey, we have one here. Let's see what's 2025 end of year going to look like it's not good, it's not good, not good.
Speaker 1:8-ball is not happy about it. I'm not even going to say what I said. I'm not even going to say it. It could be because I can't see it, because I have my glasses on, but we're going to just say I'm not going to say it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, no, we don't need those cokes, we don't need those. Yeah, so no. But there's a lot of things. I'm going to bring up one thing that I thought was interesting right off the bat, and it was let's talk about. We always talk about the fear of foreclosure. Yeah, Because that is always what comes into play as soon as the market starts to turn. You know, ever since 2008 happened, we have to always say hey, guys, we're okay, we're okay. It's almost like the community says if we would have never sent a man to the moon, we would have nothing to compare it to. That's right. Yeah, because we always say we can send a man to the moon, but we can't make tape. That works, you know what I mean.
Speaker 1:It's the same thing. If we didn't have 2008, we would never have anything to compare it to Exactly. It's the man on the moon thing. It is the man on the moon, it's the trip to the moon. So our moon days were 2008. But what I thought was interesting was everybody's crying about those numbers. I want you to tell me your stats first, and then I'm going to give you some other numbers. That makes it hit home.
Speaker 2:Well, the headlines are always making points.
Speaker 1:No pun intended with it. That's funny. Yeah, that's pretty good, just flew in there yeah.
Speaker 2:Okay, so foreclosure starts are up 7% in the first six months of this year. 7%, okay, they're up 7% Of a very small number. Yeah, okay, but zooming out shows that's nowhere near crisis level. Okay, it's 0.13% of homes 0.13%, 0.13%, okay. Even though that's an uptick, it was way less than that during the COVID thing, the forbearance program and all that. It was way, way down.
Speaker 1:You couldn't foreclose.
Speaker 2:Exactly During COVID.
Speaker 1:You couldn't Even if I wanted to Nope, They'd be like no, sir, we're not going to let you foreclose. That's right, unless we swab your nose. If we swab your nose and you have COVID, you don't have to pay a damn thing.
Speaker 2:That's exactly right.
Speaker 1:Could you imagine what a program.
Speaker 2:Imagine that now Swab my nose, swab my nose, swab my nose.
Speaker 1:I don't want to pay for my mortgage Go ahead.
Speaker 2:But the point is, brad, it's always going to go up from that. Yeah, it's always going to come up because, because it's because you can foreclose now, yeah, if you want, so point point one three percent of all homes? Yeah, I don't think that's a problem I don't think that's a problem okay, yeah, so we are not even close to crisis level.
Speaker 1:Pennsylvania was 0.12 yeah, so let's put that into terms that even make more sense. Okay, so it says here from uh data that's out there and available is the first half of 2025 was one in every 758 homes nationwide had a foreclosure filing.
Speaker 2:That's the stat.
Speaker 1:This is the one that is interesting. In 2010, during the crash, mortgage News Daily says it was one in every 45 homes. That means you knew somebody. You knew somebody that was foreclosing A couple problems. You know what I mean. In Berks County, you knew somebody was foreclosing Brad. Do you remember?
Speaker 2:It's crazy. Do you remember the quality of the home that was under foreclosure? Yeah, do you remember walking into a home that was in perfect condition Normally? Before that it was, oh my God, foreclosures.
Speaker 1:Yeah, there was dog poop on the floor, maybe cat poop, maybe both. Maybe both depends what you're into. Dead cats yeah, dead cats were there too, humans.
Speaker 2:I mean, it was really. We are not against cats, no, no, no, we like cats, no, but no, I can remember people just threw their keys on the counter and just let their house go to foreclosure. Yeah, because they didn't have any. It was they couldn't pay. They couldn't pay, yeah, no, so it's but that really was amazing.
Speaker 1:One in 758 now Yep, as opposed to one in 45. That's unbelievable.
Speaker 2:So that's folks. That really puts it into perspective Exactly.
Speaker 1:So we're good, yet no foreclosures, hugo. Nope, that's right, you're not foreclosing. Everybody's good, nope.
Speaker 2:Nope, and that's again. That's a national statistic. Yeah, here locally we're a little bit better than that.
Speaker 1:And also, if you are thinking about foreclosing just because you lost your job or whatever, please talk to a realtor. Don't just throw the keys on the counter and walk away. There's value there, you know. If you can't afford the house, at least grab the equity you deserve. You know what I mean and then get an apartment or live with a friend. Yeah, live with hugo. I mean, no, he's, he's, all he's. That that ends full that ends.
Speaker 2:His realtor knows he has less kids than you, though he has less kids than you, but he's almost there, but his realtor knows the house very well.
Speaker 1:That's a nice house and you should see what he did to it too unbelievable. I want to move in, yeah he he before you couldn't see the house because all the trees and landscaping, landscaping um was there. Now you can actually see the house vegetation, yeah, vegetation jungle, yeah, so what other stats do you have?
Speaker 2:well, I would. Just, we were looking at the, the latest kcm thing that came out, I think it was actually even today um, the housing market forecast for the rest of 2025. Yeah, yeah, go, yeah, go ahead. Right, and you know, the big thing is everyone's saying in fact, I've even talked to some-- oh, is this the one that has?
Speaker 1:everybody has a different guess. Yes, yes, yes, this is great. I love it. It's great, oh.
Speaker 2:I love these. These are so great because they are always wrong.
Speaker 1:They are Zillow and Redfin are predicting the worst case scenario I know. Now, do they know they're in real estate business? Yeah Well, they're the third. That's what? Yeah.
Speaker 2:I mean, I don't think they know and you got to understand this is their guess. No, they're into selling leads for us business.
Speaker 1:Even if your guess sucks, don't tell everybody. Your guess sucks Exactly, Especially if you're in the real estate business. If I thought the market was going to go to shit in 2025, do you really think I'm going to tell my customers?
Speaker 2:oh man, it's going to go to shit. It's going to go to shit. Yeah, exactly. Unless you absolutely positively knew Exactly, this is a prediction so don't yeah, that's unbelievable.
Speaker 1:It Prediction so don't yeah, that's unbelievable, it's unreal, guys. But then there's a lot of good predictions, A lot of good ones.
Speaker 2:Yeah, well, the highest one's Fannie Mae. Yeah, and you know what that's the secondary mortgage markets. They're feeling very comfortable and good about the real estate market and I actually believe that one more so. That one, because they have more analysts.
Speaker 1:They have more people that know finances. Yeah, you know what I mean. I trust that.
Speaker 2:I mean you got the lenders HPES, Wells Fargo, mba.
Speaker 1:So what's the?
Speaker 2:average. The average is 1.6. Appreciation yeah, I think it's more. I think it's going to be more.
Speaker 1:Well, you got to remember that's an average of the nation. I think we might be more.
Speaker 2:We're at 5.4 right now.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:I think that are at 5.4% appreciation so far this year. Still great, yeah, it's amazing. So the nation is 1.6 folks. If you're around the Berks County area, lancaster, you know all that. You are in a great spot because your equity is, you know, your appreciations in the fives.
Speaker 1:Yep, and you remember, last month I made the comment about you know, making sure, as a seller, that you're not going to be stingy not stingy but greedy, whatever you want to call it. Yeah, that you made your money over the last five to six years, don't let's not worry about the last month or two months.
Speaker 2:Okay, Well, if you've owned your house over the last five, six, seven years, you guys, you guys what I meant by that data from the federal housing finance agency, fhfa, shows prices are up 55% nationally compared to just five years ago.
Speaker 1:So if your house is up 55% over the past five years, if it drops by two or 3% over the next couple of months, let's not, let's not get crazy about it.
Speaker 2:I mean 50%. You made your money already.
Speaker 1:You made a good amount of money. You've made it, and not that how much money is too much? Well, I always think you want to make as much as you can. I too much? Well, I always think you want to make as much as you can. I'm not one of those that's. I'm a capitalist, you know. Make as much as you can, but also be realistic and evil yeah, evil capitalist. Yes, we should have evil music.
Speaker 3:I don't know if I have any evil music. Yeah, yeah, there you go yeah, but they're not.
Speaker 2:the point is, of all that's not crashing, no, no, and and I've. I was starting to say I think, and I think we got off. I've even spoken to some realtors recently People if I mentioned their name, you would be shocked that think that this thing is going to come down, it's going to crash. It has to level out, right? Listen, guys, unless it goes to 3,000, 4,000 homes on the market.
Speaker 1:It's supply and demand Period. It's not going to happen.
Speaker 2:I mean it's all inventory, it's all supply and demand. 100%. We're not building anything right now. That's significant in numbers. This is not going to change here in Berks County.
Speaker 1:I'm talking Berks County now.
Speaker 2:Florida's already done it. They're always changing and some of the short points they're already experiencing it but is changing and some some of the short points. They're already experiencing it, but texas, arizona, the sky is not falling.
Speaker 1:I mean this here locally we're good right, but this media just really and the media is more national than they are local, so and we really don't have anybody on a local level, probably besides us, right uh, telling what's going on in the berks county real estate that's correct you're not going to get it on any local news. No, they don't. They don't really get into that. You know they, they talk, even they talk about the national numbers more so than local yeah, they do yeah so, um, yeah, it's interesting well, did you see their interest rate?
Speaker 2:um prediction yeah, change yeah yeah, I know.
Speaker 1:So I love how these guys work. This is what we predict for 2025. This is gospel. This is what's going to happen. Take our word for it. All right, forget what we said in January. We were serious this time, in.
Speaker 2:July. We're serious. We're serious Now we know what we're talking about. Now we're serious.
Speaker 1:Now we're good, we got these numbers down. Oh my God, then the end of 2025. Well, we were a little off.
Speaker 2:Oh my gosh, it's funny. All right, so basically what this means, it's stable, yeah it is. So the rates are stable. They're not increasing, or really. If you see a decrease, it's going to be extremely small. Yeah, the average is in the six and a half range from 6.4 to 6.6,. Right, get used to 6.6. Right, so I get used to six it's in the sixes, it's going to stay in the sixes. The three percent honeymoon is over, folks. It's not going to happen, so uh get used to six.
Speaker 1:I mean that's where it's at. I mean hugo doesn't want to hear that because he wants to refinance what are you at.
Speaker 3:I'm at seven and a half seven.
Speaker 1:Oh well, you know that, like we talked, about your realtor.
Speaker 2:Couldn't get you a better rate than that I'd fire that guy man.
Speaker 1:I don't know I'd block that number. Oh man, he has to see me every week. He can't get rid of me. He's like yeah, I got this damn podcast. I got to go in and act like I like him. You're a good actor, You're a very good actor.
Speaker 3:You should get into acting. I should move into acting, right.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you should, you should.
Speaker 3:All right, so let's move on. What?
Speaker 1:else you got there Anything else, what else? You got Well. Hugo had a question. Why don't we go through that? Yeah, let's talk about that.
Speaker 3:I saw this, let's this image on the internet that said it was a realtor posting saying now I find myself having to buy a washer and a dryer for my I think for a buyer, because the seller included it in the contract but not in the listing. But I didn't know what that meant.
Speaker 1:But I think what it was is. The gist of it was this, I think, when he told us before we went on Was if you have a listing agreement and it says no washer and dryers included, the seller says no, no, don't want it included. Okay, An agreement gets written and the buyer's agent puts in that it's included and nobody catches it. Ie, the listing agent doesn't catch it and has his seller sign that agreement of sale. The agreement of sale is what's gospel, not the listing agreement. So somebody owes that buyer a washer and dryer. That's right. And most of the time what's going to happen is the finger is going to get pointed at the realtor for the seller and somebody is paying for a washer and dryer. Most likely, I think that's what it was.
Speaker 3:Yeah, yeah, Isn't that? I think that's what it was. Yeah, yeah, so he says I'm about to buy a washer and a dryer for a buyer, because I didn't catch that that they included it on the contract for my seller, yet it was not included in the listing. Yeah, so he was the listing agent. Yeah Well.
Speaker 2:I mean, I have a comment about that.
Speaker 2:Go ahead make the comment the realtor's signature isn't on the agreement of sale. So we have a buyer and a seller who agreed on an agreement of sale and you're supposed to I mean, as a realtor, you're supposed to point out these things though, all the things that are on the agreement. So it got missed somehow. But bottom line is the seller agreed to it with a signature on the agreement of sale, the buyer agreed to what was on the agreement of sale and technically it's the sellers. Technically that's probably the. It's the buyer agent. Was it the listing agent that buy that? That was buying that.
Speaker 1:No, it was the listing agent. It was the listing agent.
Speaker 2:Okay, the listing agent was saying Well, that's then a shame on him, because maybe he just didn't. He feels responsible. Explain it.
Speaker 1:He or she feels have caught that I'm gonna, I'm gonna pay for the buyer, the. The main thing is, just as a aside, yeah, remember, and I tell people this all the time the listing agreement is completely different than the agreement of sale. Yep, it is. Um, you could put whatever you want in that listing agreement. Yeah, as a listing agent, you, that's what's in there. But and also the other thing is that the, the listing agreement and what's on mLS is what's included at the price that's stated. So if you go down in price by a thousand dollars, the seller has every right to say well, if it's not full price I'm not including the washer and dryer, but then you got to make sure that that's not in the agreement of sale. It's very important to for every agent to look and see what the excluded and included things are on the agreement sale.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Very important.
Speaker 2:I can remember Conrad way back in the day.
Speaker 1:Good question or good comment.
Speaker 2:That's a great question. Back in the day, always when you go to Conrad with a problem, what would the first thing out of his mouth what's the contract say? What's the contract say?
Speaker 1:It's exactly right. What does the contract say?
Speaker 2:So true? Does the contract say so? True, it's just what it is. But as realtors, that's our job to explain it, to make sure they understand everything that, all the nuances of it, inspections, all that stuff, what could happen, brazils, all that stuff. It's our job, yeah, to make sure that they're clear. Yeah, so obviously, well, that might have been clear. I mean, we don't know that, we don't know the background. No, we don't. It could have been just a realtor look at that.
Speaker 1:The thing is look at the agreement of sale. As a seller, I always tell a seller there's certain things in the agreement of sale, pretty much anything that's written in. So there's a lot of blank spaces on a Pennsylvania agreement of sale, a lot of blank spaces, whatever's written in. Pay attention, the stuff that's boilerplate, that's there for every single agreement of sale across the state of Pennsylvania. That's pretty much not going to change. Stuff that's written in that changes. So look at it, right, right.
Speaker 3:I have a quick, quick question. So if I, if I sell my house after 10 years and I made some money on it, is that, is that taxable, the money that I made on it? The difference.
Speaker 1:Well, the money, money. If you don't reinvest that into your primary residence, um then yes, if you just took that, but I think it's two years you have. You have two years to reinvest that got two years, or you pay taxes on it. Okay, got it yeah now it's into your next primary, in your next primary residence, yeah oh, okay and actually if it's, uh, if your primary residence and you sell that, it's $250,000, I think for single and $500,000 for married.
Speaker 2:That's the cap. Yeah, that's the cap. It's $500,000 for the two of you guys.
Speaker 1:There's changes coming up. Good thing you brought that up. There's changes.
Speaker 1:There's a lot of changes coming up. What changes? In a good way, in a good way taxable amount of 250,000, anything over 250, you would be taxed on, okay. And now this is federally. Now too, remember, there's always state, federal, local. This is what we talk about. This. If it's federal, the state has their own set of rules and things, but federally, they're looking at raising that amount because so many people made a lot of money on inequity, especially elderly people. Looking to you know, you buy this house, you pay it off. Now it went up by 55% over the last five years. You go to sell it and you think, ah, this is my nest egg, I'm going to move to Florida, I'm going to move somewhere warm, and they're going to tax you for anything over 500,000 in in, uh, in in income or equity. Well, it's not right. It's money that that we really, really should, they should be able to keep. So they're raising that, that amount they're going to raise.
Speaker 3:What are they proponing to raising it to?
Speaker 1:I don't know that, but I know they're going to raise it and it's primary residence, only right, primary residence. Okay, yeah, which is fair, it is fair, that's fair the whole idea is you know, your primary residence is there as a wealth building yeah, tool. It's not only a place that you live in it, it's a wealth building tool.
Speaker 1:It's just something that you can look at later on and and can rely on that value being there to to live on. And if we tax it, you know, it just doesn't, it doesn't make sense. And, and my thing is this if you tax it, let's just say there's capital gains of 20% tax on that. On that, okay, my thing is this Now they have less money, so then what happens? The government might have to take care of them, right? So why don't we just let them keep the money?
Speaker 2:Yeah, you know what I mean.
Speaker 1:Let it, let it go with them. Let them spend it the way they want to spend it, instead of taking 20%. Now they don't have enough money and now the government has to take care of them. Right, doesn't make sense.
Speaker 2:You should run for office. I should, I should. I think you should be president. Thank you, brad, for president, brad for president, and I did approve that message, just so you know.
Speaker 1:I approved that frigging message. So did you have another question, hugo? No, no, that was very informative. They're good questions today, very good questions. It's about time he got the camera. Yeah, he's feeling confident the Hugo camera.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's the Hugo camera, I know I know, so no, some of the other stuff here. There are some dips in the market. You know there's an average dip right now. Let me just read this. It says keep in mind while some markets are already seeing prices come down slightly, the average dip is just 3.5%. That's a far cry from the nearly 20% decline that we saw in one year in 2008.
Speaker 1:So, you're going to see some markets come down, but it's all relative to that 55% number. You know you can't keep going up and up and up and up and up.
Speaker 2:There has to be adjustments, has to be adjustments. And that brings up that five-year rule. You know that says if you buy a house today, within five years, for the little ups and downs of it, you're going to make out in five years that you don't-.
Speaker 1:No matter what.
Speaker 2:No matter what.
Speaker 1:So it doesn't matter when you buy. So if you buy it when it's down, you're going to be good. Yep, if you buy when it's up, if you buy in the middle you're going to be good, because it's going to go maybe down and back up, or up and back down. So, or up and back down, so no matter what, in that five-year period you'll be okay.
Speaker 2:Exactly, amazing that's not a long period of time. That's not a long period of time. I remember it used to be seven.
Speaker 1:But that shows you also how quick real estate adjusts.
Speaker 2:It's a big adjustment, yeah.
Speaker 1:When it goes down, it tends to come back up, yeah it does.
Speaker 2:It's amazing. That's really cool. I like that.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's a good one. Good. So the other thing I saw here too I hope this was really interesting was on keeping current matters. It says if you want to make a move, your best bet is to focus on your personal situation. It says not what the headlines say. Work with a real estate pro who knows to navigate the shifting conditions in our local market.
Speaker 2:That is very much the truth, I love that it's very good advice.
Speaker 1:So if you're going to, if you want to move, it should be about your personal situation. Don't try to time the rate, don't try to time the market, don't try to time when, when um Sally's going to college, don't try, you know, just if there's a need there or if it's time to go, then then do it, then move, that's it. Yeah, make, make the the move, exactly, yeah. So I think that was really good advice that is good advice.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we should all keep that in mind. Yeah, you know, um, because uh, markets are unpredictable, and especially, especially right now, it's just it's very volatile and very unpredictable. I do know this. As long as the inventory stays low, it's going to continue to go up oh, that's true.
Speaker 1:So true, that's all we know. I think that's all we know for this week. We don't know much. I mean, that's pretty, that's pretty much it. I mean, we tried the eight ball but I couldn't freaking see it.
Speaker 2:It must have been something profane or something.
Speaker 1:It never comes up. No, it wasn't.
Speaker 3:This is what I get. It doesn't even.
Speaker 1:Oh, no wait. No wait, now it's saying something Pete's a jerk. That's weird. So, pete, thanks for coming out again, I appreciate it.
Speaker 2:Thanks for your insight.
Speaker 1:Thanks for your information on the real estate market, hugo, thanks for your input. I appreciate it. All right, there we go. That was it the Real Estate Show here on the Brad Wiseman Show. And thanks again for our sponsors, first Response and Comfort Pro. We really appreciate that too. We will see you next Thursday with another show, probably better than this one, because Pete was here. But that's about it, all right. See you next Thursday, all right.
